The International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND), an initiative of the Australian and Japanese governments, held its fourth meeting in Hiroshima from 17-20 October 2009.
Various civil society organizations call for the abolition of nuclear weapons between 2020 and 2025. Presidents Reagan and Gorbachev at successive Reykjavik summits envisioned this process taking a decade. The Global Zero campaign advocates achievement of a world free of nuclear weapons by 2030. The Hibakusha (atomic bomb survivors) yearn to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons in their lifetimes, but the Commission proposed no target date for getting to zero. It sets a ‘minimisation point’ with well over 1000 nuclear weapons by 2025 as a ‘medium term’ goal, and no operational detail or timeframe, even indicative, beyond that.
The grim reality is that a ‘minimization’ point with well over 1000 nuclear weapons does not minimize the dangers we face – and will continue to risk global catastrophe and the end of human civilization.
Civil society calls for the early commencement of negotiations for a Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC), but the Commission appears to view a NWC as little more than a distant prospect.
The Commission proposed that the role of nuclear weapons be declared to be restricted to deterring nuclear attacks (core deterrence) by 2012. “Core deterrence” is not an end in itself, but restricting the role of nuclear weapons in this way is an important step to facilitate deep reductions in the number, forward deployment and alert status of nuclear weapons.
In particular, the United States’ Nuclear Posture Review and Russia’s review of military doctrine are being carried out now and will be finalized by early next year. If they are to be taken seriously, the countries with over 95% of the world’s nuclear weapons must reflect their stated commitment to a world free of nuclear weapons in their military doctrines. If they do, it would be a major step forward and greatly increase the likelihood of a successful outcome to the NPT Review Conference. If they do not, a tipping point towards a cascade of proliferation will likely be crossed.
A related issue is “no first use” of nuclear weapons. On 18 October in Kyoto the Japanese Foreign Minister, Katsuya Okada, repeated his oft-expressed support for nuclear no first use, indicating that he expected the ICNND’s report to support such a policy. However, instead of recommending early adoption of no first use, the Commission appears to have relegated this to a medium term goal with a target date of 2025.
It is governments which in the end must act to progress nuclear disarmament, the Japanese and Australian Governments should take policy leadership and not allow their needed support for concrete steps to progress a world free of nuclear weapons at this vital time to be weakened or delayed. Both governments should immediately declare their support for a reduction in the role of nuclear weapons and adoption of no first use doctrine as necessary early steps towards the elimination of nuclear weapons.
Bolder leadership is called for in order to overcome the profound dangers now facing humanity and seize the present historic opportunity to achieve a world free of nuclear weapons.
